Can the Scottish team at last end the New Zealand curse?

Rugby scene
New Zealand introduced three modifications to the squad that beat the Irish team

International Rugby Series: Scotland v New Zealand

Venue: Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh Date: Saturday, 8 November Kick-off: 15:10 GMT

Things were simpler then. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. A pitch invasion to reflect the home team's momentous achievement.

Having beaten three home nations, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a international match.

A contemporary reporter almost blew a gasket. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Exiting the ground after the match, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and zero victories, but obvious indications that maybe one was not far off.

A few seasons after, New Zealand beat the Scots. Five years after that, history repeated itself. Another three years passed, same story. Another five-year gap and, yes, the pattern continued.

Modern Encounters

Two decades of matches later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - locations have varied but not the outcomes.

In his time in the job, Gregor Townsend has ended losing runs in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this is another level. Over a century of matches. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Squad Updates

In recent years the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to closer margins in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Via their excellence, their power, their chicanery, they get the job done.

As match day approaches where positive expectations that supporters maintained for Scottish success is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.

Missing Players

Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. To Scottish ambitions it was like a kick in the guts.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's a freak and if available then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern.

In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship.

Replacement Concerns

They're without Huw Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with his club. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his Test career consists of limited game time.

Once Rae's shift ends, his replacement takes over. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Strategic Decisions

The coach has made unexpected selections, partly expected, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Match moment
Darcy Graham was a try-scorer in the 31-23 defeat to New Zealand in the previous encounter

Against Ireland, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They started slowly, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge secured victory.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, offensive struggles, set-piece issues.

By the Numbers

For all that their blasts at the end, the last 20 minutes is not where New Zealand typically dominates. Across international matches recently, they've accumulated scores in the first half and fewer after halftime.

Strong opening performances, 48 in the second, moderate third quarters and solid finishes. They come exploding out of the traps.

What Scotland Needs

During their last meeting, New Zealand scored early in the initial stages. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The lesson here is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from kickoff - maintaining intensity.

Over the last decade, successful opponents have needed to score in the upper twenties. Scotland have got into the 20s only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks.

Conclusion

Perfect execution is required for Scotland. Everything. Wasted opportunities then forget it. Disciplinary issues? Repeated infringements? Set-piece struggles? It's over.

But what if everything does go right? Explosive start. Vocal support. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham.

Fantasy rugby, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If it's in there, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.

Jacob Garcia
Jacob Garcia

A passionate writer and life coach dedicated to helping others achieve their full potential through mindfulness and positive habits.